Forecast calls for 5 to 8 Tropical Cyclones This Season

May 26, 2015 Facebook Twitter LinkedIn Google+ News

The start of the 2015 Central Pacific hurricane season is just days away, and forecasters are expecting a busier year thanks in part to El Nino.


Projected climate conditions point to an above-normal hurricane season for the basin, an area located north of the equator spanning from 140 degrees west longitude to the International Date Line.

Forecasters are calling for five to eight tropical cyclones— a category that includes tropical depressions, tropical storms and hurricanes — to pass through the basin this year, said Tom Evans, acting director of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Central Pacific Hurricane Center based in Honolulu.

The center also forecast a 70 percent chance of an above-normal season, a 25 percent chance of a near-normal season and a 5 percent chance of a below-normal season, Evans said.

The Central Pacific Hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30.

The outlook is a general guide to overall seasonal hurricane activity and does not predict whether, where, when or how many systems will affect Hawaii, according to the center.

It is based on continuing low cyclone activity in the Eastern Pacific Basin and currently neutral El Nino and La Nina conditions.Currently, the Central Pacific Ocean Basin is experiencing El Nino conditions that are forecast to continue through the summer and possibly through the end of 2015.

On average, the Central Pacific annually sees four to five tropical cyclones in its waters. The number of storms has ranged from zero, most recently as 1979, to as many as 11 in 1992 and 1994.

“It only takes one tropical cyclone to have a devastating result at your home, at your business, or on your island,” said Evans. “So, be weather ready.”

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